Douglas Schoen

Attacking Trump is now a losing strategy in BOTH parties — That’s the real takeaway from Tuesday’s primaries

Tuesday’s primaries in Virginia, North Dakota, Nevada, South Carolina, and Maine indicated that in many congressional races, vehemently attacking President Trump will not be a winning strategy for either Democrats or Republicans in the Nov. 6 general election. As we’ve seen in earlier primaries this year, it was clear Tuesday that while strongly resisting President Trump is certainly damaging to Democrats, doing so is nothing short of catastrophic for Republicans. GOP voters in several races showed once again that they are rejecting lawmakers who decisively break with the president. Instead of building their campaigns on being anti-Trump, candidates in both parties would be wise to develop compelling moderate policy alternatives and a unifying message that can appeal to centrist and indepe...

Doug Schoen: The Democrats are at war — with each other. And it could spell disaster in November

Eight states – Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota – will hold primaries Tuesday to pick candidates to run in the midterm general elections Nov. 6. But before turning our attention to those races, it’s useful to look back at primary results in May and see how they reveal a Democratic party in a deep state of division. Voters in Democratic primaries are split between staunchly progressive and more moderate factions. In the struggle for leadership of the party, supporters of each faction are potentially fatally weakening the Democrats for November contests, and potentially for the 2020 elections as well. That could pave the way for President Trump to be re-elected. There has been a dramatic change in the generic polling for Congress. Repub...

What Doug Jones’ victory over Roy Moore really means for Washington (and America) in 2018

After a grueling and contentious special election campaign for Senate that gained unprecedented national attention, Democrat Doug Jones has emerged as the winner in Alabama by less than one point. In a state where President Donald Trump won by as much as 28 points one year ago, Jones gained approximately 49.6 percent of the vote, while Republican Roy Moore received 48.7 percent. The lion’s share of Jones’ momentum of course came from the accusations in recent months that Roy Moore sexual harassed and assaulted multiple teenage women. Given this, the election must be seen much more as a rejection of Roy Moore personally than President Trump. We should anticipate that in the coming days and weeks, the Democrats will try to nationalize the result and use it to put both the Republican majoriti...

Why Flynn’s guilty plea is bad news for Team Trump

Michael Flynn’s guilty plea Friday to a single count of making false statements to the FBI about conversations with Russia’s ambassador to the U.S., Sergey Kislyak, does not bode well for the Trump administration and for the president and his family personally Flynn, who briefly served as President Trump’s national security adviser and earlier was involved in the Trump presidential campaign and presidential transition team, promised full cooperation with Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election. The White House continues to maintain that Flynn does not have any information that could implicate or incriminate President Trump Court documents show Flynn told investigators that a “very senior member” of the Trump transition team directed h...

New gun laws may win approval in Congress

FILE — Handguns are seen for sale in a display case at Metro Shooting Supplies in Bridgeton, Missouri, November 13, 2014.  (REUTERS/Jim Young) The enactment of bipartisan, common-sense laws to reduce the number of needless deaths caused by gun violence in our country is no longer a far-fetched idea. A bipartisan group of senators – five Democrats and four Republicans – recently introduced a bill to improve background checks and increase accountability on gun sales. This comes after a devastating year filled with several tragic and horrifying mass shootings. It is perhaps suggestive that the tide may be shifting on the importance of enacting measures to prevent gun violence.   Crafted primarily by Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, and Chris Murphy, D-Conn., the legislation would make backgro...

Big lessons learned from Virginia, New Jersey governor’s races

The results are in and New Jersey and Virginia have elected new Democratic governors. In New Jersey, former Goldman Sachs executive and Ambassador to Germany Phil Murphy expectedly defeated Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno by an estimated margin of as many as 14 points, and in Virginia, Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam defeated former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie by an estimated 7-to-8-point margin. Surely, New Jersey’s swing to a Democratic governor is a product of an unpopular outgoing Republican governor, Chris Christie, and President Trump’s unpopularity in the state as well. Further, outgoing Republican Governor Christie has the dubious status as New Jersey’s least popular governor in recorded history, reaching all-time low approval ratings of 15 percent. The presiden...